I'd love to see the data on this. "Building" skills have never been more important than today, true. But people skills are about to become the only skills that matter, because in the next year, what matters most is still based on company size, but the most crucial differentiators will be taste, stakeholder alignment, communication of ideas (storytelling)—what we call leadership skills (they used to be called soft skills). We're still early in this cycle, at the end of it all, there will still be ICs, Managers and Leaders. But the work will shift.
Being able to put together a prototype? Table stakes. Especially at junior level.
Being able to articulate vision for a prototype to an LLM, direct it. Bring in design coordination when you need it. And then work out where the AI ends and experienced engineering starts? Then selling it into your stakeholders? Crucial.
People talk about cutting layers of management. CEOs have tried to wish away managers for a while. But that conversation only works if people understand the difference between management and leadership—everyone's a manager now, they'll be even more powerful if they can become a leader too.
I agree with much of what you've shared here, some of this is simply nomenclature. Builders aren't people who just generate a prototype and call it a day. They have opinion and are leveraging the AIs and implement and improve their ideas. That requires taste and a careful examination of how products are being used and the market the product inhabits.
Most managers, especially in larger companies, move information to their place. They're rarely empowered to build things or make decisions. These managers are at risk and getting eliminated.
What we'll be left with is a large group of builders and small group of leaders (managers as you describe) who will scale the organization using their influence, soft skills and opinions. But i don't think that group will be sizable, and certainly far smaller than the number of managers we have today.
I really like that. It seems like we're pushing the accelerator on "what we should build" and "how to influence getting that built", where everything in the middle is getting the brakes.
Reinvention isn't a deadline you missed, it's the new baseline. The A-students of the old game being the most lost in the new one is the pattern I keep watching. The skills that made them successful are the same ones making it harder to see that the game shifted.
There's either a very different job market from what I see (there is demand for a narrow set of "AI skills" but not much else) or Nikhyl is just way more optimistic than me (that's for sure). Sure, I don't live in the US, and smaller job markets (read: everywhere else) may work differently.
Yet, even knowing this I was disappointed that two out of three questions were practically dismissed by "dude, just go and get a job", like it did not cross the person's mind before. Yes, I'd do that if I could. There are just so many people out there trying to do the same that it's not working very well, even if you are a builder - because, see question 3, everyone is a builder now.
I don't believe everyone is a builder now. In fact, the number of PMs who have reformatted their work to leverage AI beyond just generating PRDs is barely a fraction of the market. Even the most forward leaning companies are still retraining their teams to change the way they are tackling every step of product management. For those that are constantly reinventing and changing their way of working, there are plenty of jobs available. So many companies I know are clearing space to hire these folks. But they are quite hard to find and hard to become, hence my push for people to embrace reinvention.
So many talented people out there not willing to build their own thing but will put blood, sweat, and tears into building someone else's dream... and they have no real authority in someone else's system...I don't get it.
Perhaps. I love the founder and/or solo journey. I just feel that not everyone is blessed with the means, support and ability to pursue this. Fortunately, it's getting easier not harder, hopefully unlocking this door for more people. But I think structure is important for most professionals, and founding just doesn't provide a lot of that.
No everyone isn't and I belong to that crowd. Seen it all my life. It's not easy but that doesn't mean we can't put our best effort toward our vision and goals. Founding does offer structure but it upon the founder to create it for him/her self first. I've learned the hard way that some of us don't fair well in other people's structures
Excited to read this. REINVENTION seems to be the skill just about everyone needs to learn and master right now.
I'd love to see the data on this. "Building" skills have never been more important than today, true. But people skills are about to become the only skills that matter, because in the next year, what matters most is still based on company size, but the most crucial differentiators will be taste, stakeholder alignment, communication of ideas (storytelling)—what we call leadership skills (they used to be called soft skills). We're still early in this cycle, at the end of it all, there will still be ICs, Managers and Leaders. But the work will shift.
Being able to put together a prototype? Table stakes. Especially at junior level.
Being able to articulate vision for a prototype to an LLM, direct it. Bring in design coordination when you need it. And then work out where the AI ends and experienced engineering starts? Then selling it into your stakeholders? Crucial.
People talk about cutting layers of management. CEOs have tried to wish away managers for a while. But that conversation only works if people understand the difference between management and leadership—everyone's a manager now, they'll be even more powerful if they can become a leader too.
I agree with much of what you've shared here, some of this is simply nomenclature. Builders aren't people who just generate a prototype and call it a day. They have opinion and are leveraging the AIs and implement and improve their ideas. That requires taste and a careful examination of how products are being used and the market the product inhabits.
Most managers, especially in larger companies, move information to their place. They're rarely empowered to build things or make decisions. These managers are at risk and getting eliminated.
What we'll be left with is a large group of builders and small group of leaders (managers as you describe) who will scale the organization using their influence, soft skills and opinions. But i don't think that group will be sizable, and certainly far smaller than the number of managers we have today.
Framing the nomenclature sounds right to me. Setting aside the labels for a sec, perhaps we can agree:
In the future, fewer people will be routing information around a system.
But more people will be required to demonstrate leadership skills.
I really like that. It seems like we're pushing the accelerator on "what we should build" and "how to influence getting that built", where everything in the middle is getting the brakes.
Reinvention isn't a deadline you missed, it's the new baseline. The A-students of the old game being the most lost in the new one is the pattern I keep watching. The skills that made them successful are the same ones making it harder to see that the game shifted.
Very impressive great analysis
I listened in disbelief.
There's either a very different job market from what I see (there is demand for a narrow set of "AI skills" but not much else) or Nikhyl is just way more optimistic than me (that's for sure). Sure, I don't live in the US, and smaller job markets (read: everywhere else) may work differently.
Yet, even knowing this I was disappointed that two out of three questions were practically dismissed by "dude, just go and get a job", like it did not cross the person's mind before. Yes, I'd do that if I could. There are just so many people out there trying to do the same that it's not working very well, even if you are a builder - because, see question 3, everyone is a builder now.
I don't believe everyone is a builder now. In fact, the number of PMs who have reformatted their work to leverage AI beyond just generating PRDs is barely a fraction of the market. Even the most forward leaning companies are still retraining their teams to change the way they are tackling every step of product management. For those that are constantly reinventing and changing their way of working, there are plenty of jobs available. So many companies I know are clearing space to hire these folks. But they are quite hard to find and hard to become, hence my push for people to embrace reinvention.
So many talented people out there not willing to build their own thing but will put blood, sweat, and tears into building someone else's dream... and they have no real authority in someone else's system...I don't get it.
Perhaps. I love the founder and/or solo journey. I just feel that not everyone is blessed with the means, support and ability to pursue this. Fortunately, it's getting easier not harder, hopefully unlocking this door for more people. But I think structure is important for most professionals, and founding just doesn't provide a lot of that.
No everyone isn't and I belong to that crowd. Seen it all my life. It's not easy but that doesn't mean we can't put our best effort toward our vision and goals. Founding does offer structure but it upon the founder to create it for him/her self first. I've learned the hard way that some of us don't fair well in other people's structures